Effect of Temperature on Sea Water Surface Increment in North Sumatera- Indonesia




Hamzah Lubis 
ABSTRACT

Rule of Indonesian Republic No. 64, 2010 is about disaster mitigation in coastal area and small Island. It needs data of temperature and sea water surface increment. This paper focuses on the ambient temperature and rate of temperature increment and sea water surface increment in Province of North Sumatera, Indonesia for the year of 2015.This research location is in East and West coastal area, Sumatera and coastal Nias island. The method of sea water surface increment measurement is photo image “coastal area susceptibility index” for the year of 2008. The research data is presented in table, graph and narration. The results show that the highest temperature in East coastal area, West coastal area and coastal Nias island are 31.8 0C, 32.2 0C and 32.2 0C, respectively with province average temperature is 27.36 0C. The rates of average temperature increment are 0.54%, 1.87 % and 3.66% for each area. The rates of maximum temperature increment are 0.25%, 1.89% and 11.3% for each area.  The rates of sea water surface increment are 0.395%, 1.88% and 7.48% for each area. The sea water surface increments in 2008 and 2015  are 5-14 mm/year and 14.4-101.76 mm/year, respectively. The highest rate of sea water surface increment in coastal Nias island is 848%. Based on the data shows that a disaster mitigation in coastal Nias island is very urgent.

INTRODUCTION

Indonesia has sea area of 5,800,000 km2 which is connected to 17,480 islands. It has shore line of 95,181 km2 which places Indonesia as the fourth  shore line in the world. The province of North Sumatera is one part of provinces in Indonesia that has sea area of 10,000 km2, it is 60.5% of province that is connected 162 small islands with shore line of 1,300 km. The small islands is 6 islands in East shore nd 156 islands in West shore , North Sumatera (1). The shore and small islands are susceptible to occur a disaster. It is due to a climate change (2). The climate change occur because a global warming up.  It is due to the effect of green house gas. The big number of green house gas is produced by human works. One part of climate change effect is increasing of the world temperature. It affects the sea water surface increment. The effect of sea water surface increment is that the shores and shore cities will be under water and it is followed by the other multiple effects. Thus, the sea water surface increment is to be one part of main environment issue.  
For decreasing the effect of climate change, Indonesia government has raised a rule of Indonesian Republic No. 64, 2010 is about disaster mitigation in coastal area and small Island. In its implementation, it needs the support data, one part is the data of temperature and rate of temperature increment, the data of increment and increment rate of sea water surface in every small city of shore and small island. This paper focuses on the surrounding temperature and the sea water surface increment.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Green House Gas Emission
The scientists almost use term of Global Warning Potential (GWP) for comparing the effect  of one green house gas (GHG) on the other  green house gas to global warming up. The green house gas and level of GWP are shown in Table 1 (3).
Table 1  Pollution level of green house gas
Level of GWP
Life Time (year)
GWP Based on Life Time
20  years
100  years
500 years
Methane
12
72
25
7.6
Di nitrogen oxide
114
310
298
153
HFC-23 (hydro fluorocarbon)
270
12,000
14,800
12.00
HFC-134a (hydro fluorocarbon)
14
3,830
1,430
435
Sulphur hexafluoride
3,200
16,300
22,800
32,600
Tetra  flour methane
50,000
5,210
7,390
11,200
Nitrogen tri fluoride
740
12,300
17,200
20,700
The gas emission of GHG always increases. Since 1850 to 2011, it increases by multiplier of  163. The increment rate of GHG is not promotional to the population rate ( 7 times) of 1.2 billion to be 7 billion.   The CO2 global emission in 1850 was only 198 Mt, it increases directly in 1890, 1930, 1970 and 2011 to be 1,304 Mt, 3,855 Mt, 14,531 Mt and 32,274 Mt, respectively. If there is no effort to decrease the gas emission, thus the earth has only around 485 Pg-C and will be empty in 2045 (4). The gas emission of GHG in Indonesia (20150 without a calculation of forest fire and field is 37.17 Gt that it is equivalent to CO2 (GTCO2e) or 1.45 % of the global gas emission of GHG. By calculating the emission of forest fire and field, the emission in Indonesia is to be 3 % of  the global gas emission of GHG.

Global Warming
Some factors which affect to global warming are; (a) radiation fluctuation of sun electromagnetic wave, (b) distance change between earth to sun, (c) aerosol phenomenon and cloud in atmosphere, (d) clear color earth surface and (e) effect of green house phenomenon (3). At the first time, the increment of surrounding temperature was very slow (0.2 0C) from the year of 1000 to early century of 19. The increment of temperature increase to be 0.35 0C (in 1910 -  1940) and 0.55 0C (in 1940 – 2000) (3). The highest surface temperature at North cross has been recorded was 56.7 0C in Furnace Greek, Greenland, California, America on 10th July 1913,   in South cross was 50.7 0C in Oodnadatta, Australia. The increment of surrounding temperature, if there is no reduction of emission is to be 4 0C to 5 0C in 2100.  To restrain the temperature increment rate, panel of government for climate change of United Nation has decided scenario of safety temperature increment of 2 0C  in 2100. The increment rate of global temperature (5) and regional (6) are shown in Figure 1 and Fig 2.

Figure-1. Increment rate of global temperature

Figure-2. Temperature increment in Nort Sumatera

Sea Surface Increment
The global warming has triggered  the ice liquefaction  in pole region and affects the sea water surface increment (3). The best scenario is to restrain the maximum temperature increment of 2 0C as decision of the United Nation in  Konpenhagen, Denmark in2009 (4). If the scenario is not run, thus the sea water surface increment will increase drastically. The United Nation in 2013 estimate that the sea surface increase 30-200 cm (7) and the other modelling predicts that the increasing is 1,140 cm in 2100. The best scenario figure of sea water surface increment (4) as shown in Figure 3.

              Figure 3 Scenario of sea surface increment

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This research focuses on the increment level of sea water in cities of shore, North Sumatera Indonesia. This research is worked in 2015 and located on 30 observation points in cities of shore and small island, North Sumatera, Indonesia. It is categorized in three groups, the first one is East coastal area, Sumatera island, the second one is West coastal area, Sumatera island, and the last one is coastal Nias island. Ten cities and islands are observed for eEach group. The location map is shown in Figure 4.
The method used to record the sea water surface increment in small city of North Sumatera province is photo image (7) by analyzing the color “coastal area susceptibility index in 2008” that it is published by Department of naval and fishery, Republic  of Indonesia. The data of temperature is collected from secondary data (Statistical Centre Board, 2006  - 2015).

                                  Figure 4  Province of North Sumatera

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Temperature Increment in East Coastal Area
The temperature increment in East coastal, North Sumatera is analyzed based on the data of maximum and minimum temperature from Agency of Meteorological Climatology and Geophysics in Belawan for the year of 2006 – 2015. The analysis result is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5 Temperature graph for  Belawan

Figure 5 shows the temperature increment for ten years. The measurement of minimum temperature increases from 24.0 0C in 2005 becomes 24.9 0C in 2014 with increment rate of 3.75 % per ten years. It is also for the measurement of average temperature of 27.9 0C in 2005 becomes 27.95 0C in 2014, it reaches 28.05 0C in 2010. The highest maximum increment rate is 0.54 % per ten years.  For the maximum temperature of 31.8 0C in 2005 becomes 31.0 0C with trend of reduction is 0.25 % per ten years.

Temperature Increment in West  Coastal Area
The temperature increment in West coastal, North Sumatera is analyzed based on the data of maximum and minimum temperature from Agency of Meteorological Climatology and Geophysics in Pinang Sori for the year of 2005 – 2014. The analysis result is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6 Temperature graph for  Pinang Sori

Figure 6 shows the measurement of minimum temperature that it increases from 21.8 0C in 2005 becomes 22.2 0C in 2014 with increment rate of 1.83 % per ten years. It is also for the measurement of average temperature of 26.7 0C in 2005 becomes 27.20 0C in 2014 with the increment rate is 1.87 %. The maximum temperature of 31.6 0C in 2005 becomes 32.20 0C with increment rate of 1.89 % per ten years.

Temperature Increment in  Coastal Nias Island
The temperature increment in coastal Nias island, North Sumatera is analyzed based on the data of maximum and minimum temperature from Agency of Meteorological Climatology and Geophysics in Binaka for the year of 2005 – 2014. The analysis result is shown in Figure7.

                                                   Figure 7  Temperature graph for  Binaka

Figure 7 shows the measurement of minimum temperature that it increases from 21.9 0C in 2005 becomes 22.7 0C in 2014 with increment rate of 3.65 % per ten years. It is also for the measurement of average temperature of 25.9 0C in 2005 becomes 26.85 0C in 2014 with the increment rate is 3.66 %. The maximum temperature of 29.9 0C in 2005 becomes 31.0 0C, it has been in 33.2 0C  with increment rate of 11.03 % per ten years.
Based on the analysis above shows that the highest average temperature for East coastal area, West coastal area and coastal Nias island are 28.5 0C, 27.2 0C and 26,85 0C, respectively with the average temperature in Province of North Sumatere is 27.36 0C. The average temperature increment rate is 2.02 %. The highest temperature is recorded in East coastal area,  West coastal area and coastal Nias island are 31.8 0C, 32.2 0C and 33.2 0C, respectively with the maximum temperature increment rate is 11.3 % per ten years in Nias island.

Sea Surface Increment
The sea surface level  increment in the shores for the small island and small cities in North Sumatera in 1998 is obtained from the photo image “coastal area susceptibility index in 1998”. Based on the concept that the sea water surface increment per year can be recorded from each city and small island. For the works of sea water surface increment, it correlates to the temperature increment.  The average temperature increment rate in East coastal area, West coastal area and coastal Nias island are 0.54 %, 1.87 % and 3.66 %, respectively. The maximum temperature increment rate in East coastal area, West coastal area and coastal Nias island are 0.25 %, 1.89 % and 11.3 %, respectively. It is analyzed based on assuming that the temperature rate is proportional to the sea water increment rate, thus the sea water surface increment rate in East coastal area, West coastal area and coastal Nias island are 0.395 %, 1.88 % and 7.48 %, respectively for ten years. Therefore, the sea water surface increment level can be obtained in cities and small island in North Sumatera in 2015. The data of sea water surface increment in 2008 and 2015 are shown in Table 2.   
          Tabel-2. Kenaikan Permukaan Air Laut Sumatera Utara Tahun 2008, 2015
East coastal area
West coastal area
Coastal Nias island
City/ Island
Temperature increment (oC)
City/ Island
Temperature increment (oC)
City/ Island
Temperature increment (oC)
2008
2015
2008
2015
2008
2015
 P.Sembilan
14.0
19.53
Barus
5.0
14.4
Tuhemberua
12.0
101.76
Pk. Susu
14.0
19.53
Sibolga
5.0
14.4
 Gn.Sitoli
12.0
101.76
Tapak Kuda
13.5
18.83
 Pandan
5.0
14.4
 Hiliana
12.0
101.76
 Belawan
13.5
18.83
P.Mursala
5.0
14.4
T. Dalam
12.0
101.76
 Percut
13.0
18.14
Bt.Mundon
12.0
34.56
Sirombu
12.0
101.76
Pt. Cermin
13.0
18.14
Singkuang
12.0
34.56
P.Pini
12.0
101.76
 S. Buah
13.0
18.14
Tabuyung
12.0
34.56
P.Tana Masa
12.0
101.76
Pk. Luduk
12.5
17.44
 Taluk
12.0
34.56
P.Bala
12.0
101.76
Tj. Tiram
12.5
17.44
 Natal
12.0
34.56
P.Simuk
12.0
101.76
S.Pt. Pukat
12.5
17.44
 Batahan
12.0
34.56
P. Wunga
12.0
101.76

Based on the Table 2 that the lowest sea water surface increments are around  Barus, Sibolga, Pandan and Mursala island, they are 5 mm/year. The sea increment level in the four locations include in the lowest increments in some locations in Indonesia. The sea water increment level in East coastal area, North Sumatera gives a trend that it goes to North from 12.5-14 mm/year and coastal Nias island is 12 mm/year. The sea water surface increment in 2015 in the West coastal area and East coastal area are from 14.4 mm to 34.56 mm, 17.44 mm to 19.53 mm, respectively. Whereas, the sea water surface increment in Nias island is 101.76 mm with its increment rate is 848 %. The highest sea water surface increment needs more comprehensive disaster mitigation. A graph og sea water surface increment in 2008 and 2015 and also the sea water surface increment rate are shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8 The sea water surface increment in North Sumatera

CONCLUSIONS

1.        The highest average temperature in East coastal area, west coastal area and coastal Nias island are 28.5 0C, 27.2 0C and 26.85 0C, respectively with average temperature in Province of North Sumatera is 27.36 0C. The highest temperature in East coastal area, west coastal area and coastal Nias island are 31.8 0C, 32.2 0C and 32.2 0C.
2.      The average temperature increment rate in the East coastal area, west coastal area and coastal Nias island are 0.54 %, 1.87 % and 3.66 %, respectively with the average temperature increment rate in Province of North Sumatera is 2.02 %. The maximum temperature increment rate in the East coastal area, west coastal area and coastal Nias island are 0.25 %, 1.89 % and 11.3 %.
3.      The sea water surface increment rate the time of ten years in the East coastal area, west coastal area and coastal Nias island are 0.395 %, 1.88 % and 7.48 %, respectively.
4.      The sea water level increment for the year of 2008 in the East coastal area, west coastal area and coastal Nias island are 12.5-14 mm/year, 5-12 mm/year and 12 mm/year, respectively.  The sea water surface increment for the year of 2014 in the East coastal area, west coastal area and coastal Nias island are 14.4 mm – 34.56 mm, 17.44 mm – 19.53 mm and 101.76 mm, respectively. The sea water surface increment rate in Nias island is 848 %.

 

REFERENCES

1)  H. Lubis.2013. Management of Poncan Island. PhD Thesis, North Sumatera University, Medan.

2)   D. Glenn, United Nations Environment Programme Post Conflict and Disaster Management Branch.2007. Environment and Disaster Reduction  in a Changing Climate.  Workshop of Climate Change: Changing The Community Pradigm In Climate Change. Environment Agency in Province of North Sumatera, Medan, 19 November 2007

3)   Team SOS.2011. Global Warming up, solution and Business opportunity. Gramedia Pustaka Utama, Jakarta.

4)   I. L. Brigitta. 2014. Climate change: Earth Temperature still to be politic fighting. Harian Kompas, No.130, 10 Novpember 2014, p.14.

5)    Y. Arief. 2007. Environment management. National Seminar Participant and Fucntion of Alumna in Continuity Regional  Development. North Sumatera University. Medan. 30 June 2007.

6)   Hidayati.2007. Province Goverment in North Sumatera to Reduce the Green House  Emission. Workshop of Climate Change“Changing The Community Paradigm in Climate Change”, Medan 19 November 2007.

7)    K. S. W. Ratna, R. J Mitta, M. Melda, S.S Solihin. 2005. Guidance of Photo Image. Jakarta. Ministry of Environment.

*Journal of Engineering Research and Education Vol.8 (2016) 9-20
**Environment Lecturer in Institut Teknologi Medan (ITM); Regional Board of Climate Change in North Sumatera; Maritime Colleague in North Sumatera
 ***Corresponding author.  Tel : +62617363771 Fax : +62 61 7363771
E-mail address : hamzah_blh@yahoo.com  (Hamzah Lubis)






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